Why have an accurate poll?

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Friday September 03, 2004 · 3:18 PM PDT

2004/09/03 · 15:18

Just something to think about with the Time poll that just came out, but why on earth would a news organization want an accurate poll? If you constantly have an outlier and your poll shows wild fluctuations then you get massive attention and your poll gets linked to over and over. If you have an accurate poll that just shows what everyone else's does then you barely get a mention. Even if your polling is completely wrong today it does not look bad even if the other side comes out ahead because all you are claiming is that it is a snapshot and isn't a prediction of victory. Even close to the election where your poll can be considered a prediction, only the most hardcore people have any idea of which polls tend to be accurate. For everyone else you are a genius when you have their guy ahead and horribly biased if their guy is losing. Just keep in mind when you see outlier polls that its somewhat likely that the pollsters know they are putting out a lousy snapshot and simply do not care.

FEC Issues New Limits on Big Donations

Damon

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Wednesday February 18, 2004 · 7:07 PM PST

2004/02/18 · 19:07

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A51992-2004Feb18.html

I have been writing alot about this is my diaries so I guess I should update people as I get more information about this. Here is the first report I have seen on the results of the big votes today. This article is extremely light on details but reading between the lines it appears that the FEC will put off making any of the big decisions about the 527 groups and whether they can accept soft money until they start the formal rulemaking process. Just trying to keep people as updated as possible on this big issue.

WASHINGTON - Election regulators imposed new limits Wednesday on non-party political groups that want to use large corporate and union donations to influence this fall's elections but declined for the time being to ban their use of big money.
The Federal Election Commission voted 4-2 to place some restrictions on outside political groups that register with the commission to raise money. The restrictions will limit when and how they can use corporate and union money for election activities.
But the commission put off a decision on the larger issue of whether the nation's new campaign finance law, which bans such donations to federal candidates and political parties, should also outlaw big money donations to outside groups like tax-exempt partisan organizations.
The commission will begin to weigh that issue next month in a formal rule-making process that could stretch into the spring.

527 soft money may not be safe after all

Damon

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Wednesday February 18, 2004 · 10:43 AM PST

2004/02/18 · 10:43

I have been following the debate about whether the soft money donations to the section 527 groups like moveon.org will be allowed for this election in my diary. Up until this week it looked like the republicans had the votes necessary on the FEC to ban soft money donations to these groups, but it appeared that the FEC chairman (a republican) had changed his mind and would vote to allow the large donations. This would have deadlocked the FEC 3-3 and the donations would probably still be allowed if congress did not step in to close the loophole.

However, this quote today in the Hill has me wondering if there will be another last minute change of heart from the Commissioner and that the soft money may be banned after all. Read More

Soft money for 527s looks to be safe

Damon

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Monday February 16, 2004 · 11:06 AM PST

2004/02/16 · 11:06

In my diaries I have been writing about how it seemed exceptionally likely that the FEC would ban soft money to the 527 groups like moveon.org and any donation in excess of the $5000 limit would need to be returned. It seems that for some reason, the republican chairman of the FEC has changed his mind on the issue and is now pushing for the soft money donations to be allowed. Since one democrat was already on board to ban the large donations, this is major news. Perhaps the reports that the democratic 527 groups have not been very successful in raising the funds is part of the reason he has changed his mind.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A44487-2004Feb15.html

It should be noted that Russ Feingold and John McCain both are pushing the FEC to ban the soft money to the 527 groups.

Medicare Drug Cost Estimate Increases

Damon

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Friday January 30, 2004 · 9:55 AM PST

2004/01/30 · 09:55

Yeah I know that I just posted a diary entry a couple seconds ago, but this is another important article.

The White House has concluded that adding prescription drug benefits to Medicare will cost one-third more than the $400 billion advertised by Congress and the administration when President Bush signed the bill into law less than two months ago, federal sources said yesterday.
The budget Bush is to propose on Monday will say that the new Medicare law, which sets in motion the largest expansion of the program in its history, will require $534 billion in the next decade, $134 billion more than the president and lawmakers said, according to congressional and administration sources.
Word of the escalation in the spending forecast immediately enraged lawmakers and policy analysts at both ends of the ideological spectrum. Congressional Democrats and conservative Republicans alike vowed that they would intensify efforts they already had been planning to alter major aspects of the Medicare law this year. "This is a work in progress," said Rep. Jack Kingston (R-Ga.), a conservative who voted for the law.

Damon

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Friday January 30, 2004 · 9:35 AM PST

2004/01/30 · 09:35

I know many of you think that Soft money will be able to be used in this election as long as it is donated to the 527 groups like moveon.org but it is extremely unlikely that this will be allowed. Here is an article from the washington post talking about how the FEC lawyers have concluded that in the wake of the Supreme Court's ruling on the BCRA that any donations in excess of the $5000 dollar individual limit to the 527 groups would need to be returned. Read More

Writing off Kerry early-- crow is served

Damon

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Thursday January 22, 2004 · 11:00 AM PST

2004/01/22 · 11:00

I just remembered the thread about how Carvile said that Kerry was still in 2nd place and how much we all dismissed it. I figured I would go back through the thread and bring back some of the worst pronouncements in the thread. I am not calling anyone out on this, I just think it will be fun to realize just how much we thought we knew and how wrong we all were less than 3 weeks ago. There were some quotes in the thread (http://www.dailykos.com/story/2004/1/2/18201/65835 ) that still look pretty good in retrospect but those aren't nearly as much fun. Read More

Supreme Court Won't Block Texas Redistrict Plan

Damon

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Friday January 16, 2004 · 5:33 PM PST

2004/01/16 · 17:33

In a move that suprises absolutely no one, the Court has refused to block the redistricting which clears the way for the republicans to pick up as many as 6 seats in the upcoming election. This was just the emergency appeal and the court could theoretically go back later and pick the case up again but it wouldn't be in time to change the maps this year.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A23408-2004Jan16.html

How republicans will stop soft money to moveon.org

Damon

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Friday January 16, 2004 · 12:50 PM PST

2004/01/16 · 12:50

So it seems my diary has become the place where I follow the stories on how the FEC could still rule that the soft money donations to the section 527 groups could be made illegal. Someone correct me if I am wrong but I think that the FEC is made up of 3 republicans and 3 democrats who interpret the rules and laws then enforce them. The 3 republicans evidentially are all on board with forcing all of the 527's to abide by an individual donation limit (either $2000 or $5000 depending on the article) which would mean that groups like move-on would have to return any large donations that they have recieved. This would include any money paid to them by George Soros. But without one of the 3 democrats on the FEC going along with the plan the republicans cannot do anything.

Well from this article (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A21188-2004Jan15.html) it seems that the republicans have one hardline democrat who is likely on board to ban all of this soft money. Unlike the republicans who are supporting the ban as a political calculation, he just really thinks it is the right thing to do. But here is the kicker- the democrats know that this one FEC guy (Scott Thomas) is likely to ban the soft money so they have not appointed him to another term in the FEC, but he is still serving until a replacement can be confirmed. Here is where I read between the lines but the republicans control the Senate so I don't think that they will be in any hurry to confirm a replacement to the FEC that might rule in favor of allowing these soft money donations. So thats how it appears the republicans will do this. They will stall any confirmation of someone to replace Scott Thomas until after the FEC has already ruled that any soft money donations to the 3rd party groups would have to be returned. After that, even if the new democrat is confirmed the rules would not be changed unless one of the republicans also changed his mind.

GOP Urges Wider Ban on 'Soft Money' (limiting 527 organizations)

Damon

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Tuesday January 13, 2004 · 1:51 PM PST

2004/01/13 · 13:51

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A14871-2003Dec19.html

Here is an article talking about how the Republicans are asking the FEC chairman to rule that the section 527 groups are bound by the same $2000 dollar hard individual limit that any other pac is. This would have a massive effect on groups like Moveon.org that have been able to accept very large donations. Once again this puts Democrats in a tough position. The main thrust of the BCRA was the ban on soft money but the Democrats are much more dependent on soft money that Republicans are. Note that none of this would have anything at all to do with Dean's massive fundraising so candidates who have not opted out of financing would be particularly hurt by this. This has largely passed under the radar of this site but the ruling would dramatically affect the race. If the ruling goes against the 527's then all money collected in excess of the $2000 individual limit would have to be returned to the donor.

A couple quotes: Read More

Section 527 groups could face maximum donation limit

Damon

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Tuesday December 23, 2003 · 2:24 PM PST

2003/12/23 · 14:24

I posted this in the open comments thread but this deserves way more attention. I guess the interview was a couple days ago but it somehow slipped through the cracks.

In this article, new FEC chairman says that he might put the same restrictions on the new section 527 groups that currently exist for PAC's. As of now, the 527's are allowed to take in the massive soft money donations that were given to political parties before the BRCA. These 527 groups have been created by both parties specifically to get around the new laws but the FEC chair says that he might force them to cap individual donations at $5000. Of course this would completely destroy the ability of someone like Soros to affect the election. Since the republicans are doing much better in the small "hard money" donations this could really hurt the democrats badly.

Whatever you think of the BCRA and the 527's this development has the potential to dramatically affect the election.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A14871-2003Dec19.html

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